Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.
Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***
Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:
FL-06 – R+8,
GA-06 – R+?,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
VA-01 – R+9,
WA-05 – R+7.1,
So 413 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.
But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.
So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 179
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0
Districts with rumoured candidates – 5
Districts without any candidates – 6
Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11
The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-49 – R+10,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-24 – R+3,
FL-25 – R+4,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-05 – R+20,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-01 – R+20,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-06 – R+7,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
MO-09 – R+7,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MT-AL – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-07 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-05 – R+7.1,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,
The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
None at this stage
The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
GA-03 – R+?,
LA-07 – R+7,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
LA-05 – R+10,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-10 – R+4,
OK-01 – R+13,
WI-05 – R+12,
And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.
The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:
AL-06 – R+25,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
KY-05 – R+8
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-21 – R+13,
Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.
It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Georgia, New York and Wisconsin. Thats 39 states with a full slate, and 3 states with one race to fill!
There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.
Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.
It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.
With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.
*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***
Not many left to fill now.
74 contested Republican seats that had Democratic challengers who, at this point, had raised at least $100,000.
This year, even though there are 30 fewer Republican seats to contest, there are at least 86 Republican seats with Democratic challengers who have raised at least $100,000 at the end of the 1st qtr. I use $100,000 as a target because only one of the 30 seats Democrats took from Republicans was won by a candidate who had not raised at least $100k by the 1st qtr. Nancy Boyda in Kansas who also defeated the Democrat who had raised $100k+ in the 1st qtr 06 in the primary.
So, even though we won’t hit the high mark that we did in 06 for number of candidates, we will have more candidates who run strong races for 08.
Have you got any info on how the republicans are doing?
by using Thegreenpapers.com and the race tracker wiki, i’ve got 23 seats not contested by the republicans in states whose filing deadlines have passed:
AL-07, AR-01, AR-02, AR-04, CA-18, CA-28, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-37, CA-38, IL-02, IL-04, IL-05, IL-07, IL-17, MO-01, NJ-10, OR-04, PA-14, TN-06, TX-09, TX-16, VA-03 and WV-01.
Does that sound right to you? Am i missing any seats?
I find it surprising that they’re not contesting CA-18 and WV-01 as they both went for bush in 04. And i think its highly suspect that all incumbents in Arkansas will be unopposed in November, even first term senator pryor.
Four of the 11 come up soon:
Georgia (May 2, 1 seat)
Michigan (May 13 (3 seats)
Michigan has had ongoing results for quite a while but only two Democrats, John Dingell and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, have filed so far.
Oklahoma, with three more seats, has a June 4 deadline. Wisconsin (July 8), Louisiana (July 11) and New York (July 18) may make us wait. Delaware, on July 25, has the latest filing deadline this cycle. The failure to mount a challenge to Peter King effectively would seem to give him a pass for this cycle although national Democrats may have the money to make a run, particularly given the obvious reluctance of the relatively monied RNC to spend on House seats this cycle.